A Tale of Two Metrics: Accuracy and Drop Rates Plague the Steelers

[Steeler Nation]

A lot was written during the 2020 campaign about dropped balls being a plaguing issue for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

And the critics voicing those concerns were not wrong.

Case in point, Dionate Johnson did lead the league in dropped passes with a total of 10. And, depending on which website you use, the Steelers – as a team – also led the NFL. Personally, I prefer to use Pro Football Focus, which charted the Steelers with a league-leading 40 dropped passes this season.

As you can imagine, 40 dropped passes can lead to a lot of downstream issues.

For example, Adam Bittner, over at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, did a solid deep-dive on Ben Roethlisberger‘s deep throw attempts. In doing so, it becomes apparent that at least a small part of Roethlisberger’s struggles were dropped passes.

But, looking at dropped passes individually does not tell the whole story.

You have to consider the total amount of catchable balls against the total number of dropped passes to be able to really judge a team’s performance.

Unfortunately, even that bit of mathematical gymnastics does not ease the suffering for the Steelers.

Just take a look at the chart:



The Steelers, according to the data collected from nflfastR, attempted 676 passes this season. Of those 676 attempts, PFF charted 468 of them as being catchable. While those 468 catchable balls were the best in the league, you need to consider the overall percentage.

For example, Roethlisberger’s total catchable balls divided by his total attempts results in a percentage-catchable rate of just 69.2%.

Not great.

Of those 468 catchable passes, the Steelers – as previously mentioned – dropped the ball 40 times. That works out to an 8.5% drop rate.

That is fourth-worst in the NFL, barely worse than the Baltimore Ravens‘ total drop rate of 8.54%. As you can see, the Steelers’ drop rate percentage is only marginally better than the team’s worst-in-the-NFL 40 total drops.

The problem is clearly twofold.

The Pittsburgh receivers need to stop dropping the ball at such an insane rate.

At the same time, Roethlisberger is nowhere near as accurate as he once was. This is especially obvious when looking at deep ball accuracy.

Here is your look at deep ball attempts vs. accuracy for the 2020 season. Between Roethlisberger and Haskins, it is not likely that the #Steelers are going to see a good deep ball anytime soon.

Also: @TomBrady. Come on, man. @SteeIerNation @fugimaster24 pic.twitter.com/zybWelTYIB

— Brad Congelio, Ph.D.

(@BradCongelio) February 18, 2021

In any case, it is a perfect storm-type scenario. An aging quarterback, who is increasingly less accurate than in previous years coming off a rather substantial throwing-elbow surgery, is tossing the pigskin to a group of receivers who – on a whole – have one of the highest drop rates in the league.

It is not a one-or-the-another type of problem.

It is a problem.

And I have a gut feeling it is one that the Steelers coaching staff was aware of heading into the season. It would explain why Roethlisberger did not even break seven yards in average depth of target (6.9 yards aDOT).

It would also explain why one of his most sure-handed wide receivers, JuJu Smith-Schuster, has seen his average yards per target dip every season since 2017. His 2020 aYPT was a measly 6.5. That is one of the lowest averages among receivers with at least 100 targets.

A shallower depth of target means less chance of accuracy issues coming into play.

For example, look at the heat map of target depth between Roethlisberger and Lamar Jackson, both of who operated out of the shotgun/pistol formation more than almost anyone else in the NFL this past season:



In the end, a far argument and assessment can be made that the Steelers coaching staff attempted to resolve Roethlisberger’s accuracy issue by limiting his downfield throwing.

What they did not account for was the amount of dropped balls.

And that correction is yet to be seen.

#SteelerNation

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[TDX27]

In addition to his rehab last year and coming back in good shape, Ben really needed to focus on his mechanics. He focused on spin rate and throwing the ball downfield. This offseason, assuming he is coming back he needs to focus on being in even better shape (especially his legs and potentially arthritic knees which you can't do much about as no surgery can fix arthritis) and he needs to focus on his mechanics and the basics. If he does that, he will look even better this coming year. Yes, overall, I am one that thinks Ben played mostly good last year and have no problem (other than money) if he comes back for another year. ****, Brees and Peyton played into their 40's and Marsha is going to play until at least 45 so another year from Ben at a high level is not out of the realm of possibilities.

 

[Punxsutawney]

In addition to his rehab last year and coming back in good shape, Ben really needed to focus on his mechanics. He focused on spin rate and throwing the ball downfield. This offseason, assuming he is coming back he needs to focus on being in even better shape (especially his legs and potentially arthritic knees which you can't do much about as no surgery can fix arthritis) and he needs to focus on his mechanics and the basics. If he does that, he will look even better this coming year. Yes, overall, I am one that thinks Ben played mostly good last year and have no problem (other than money) if he comes back for another year. ****, Brees and Peyton played into their 40's and Marsha is going to play until at least 45 so another year from Ben at a high level is not out of the realm of possibilities.

Peyton did not quite make it to his 40s, and was pretty bad toward the end, despite winning another ring. His arm was shot, and Brees looked the same way this past season.

Ben still showed great arm strength last year, but the mechanics were a mess at times toward the end of the season. He was throwing off balance a lot, especially in the second Bengals game. Perhaps he was injured more than was being disclosed publicly, or maybe his legs just wore out. The bottom line is that he can focus on mechanics all he wants, but it won't matter much if his legs continue to fail him.

Ultimately, the guy did complete 48 passes for over 500 yards in the playoff game. Regardless of circumstances, that's impressive and he might have actually completed the comeback if Tomlin had some balls and the defense could have made another stop or two in the second half.

If one combines that with his previous start where he shredded a good Colts defense in the second half, he might have more left in him than people think, but he will be a year older and it's unclear whether the Steelers will be able to improve the running game enough to take some pressure off of him in 2021.

 

[Drink IRON City]

This offensive scheme and coaching staff showed very little in being able to help BEN or other players out. A couple examples.......

1) Why did it take until late in the season for Deonte Johnson (most drops) to actively and dedicativly engage with the JUGGs machine. His problem wasn't solved in one session but greatly improved as time went along. WHY wasn't this addressed earlier or most importantly, the ENTIRE season ?

2) Play call telegraphing, make no mistake that opposing defenses had every bit of knowledge of run or pass and more likely than not, where the run / pass was headed field location-wise. I would venture to say over 68% of the time the defense guessed (if you can call it that) the exact play or near play called based on Personel / formation / QB placement.

3) NO ADJUSTMENTs or even the appearance of adjustments enabling Personel (on field) to get a better position to succeed. This was evident many times with one of them being the PO game against Cleveland. Offense Run away from TJ with continual defensive line slant attacks in the wrong direction. Obviously there were many many other examples in this game but also season long as well.


We made several coaching changes which in themselves will help BEN & Co., I hope the head coach can adjust and step up as well in identifying some of the weaknesses and in doing so so make adjustments along the way.......in a sooner manor than a later one.





Salute the nation

 

[SteelerFan448]

In addition to his rehab last year and coming back in good shape, Ben really needed to focus on his mechanics. He focused on spin rate and throwing the ball downfield. This offseason, assuming he is coming back he needs to focus on being in even better shape (especially his legs and potentially arthritic knees which you can't do much about as no surgery can fix arthritis) and he needs to focus on his mechanics and the basics. If he does that, he will look even better this coming year. Yes, overall, I am one that thinks Ben played mostly good last year and have no problem (other than money) if he comes back for another year. ****, Brees and Peyton played into their 40's and Marsha is going to play until at least 45 so another year from Ben at a high level is not out of the realm of possibilities.

Are you expecting him to do something he really hasn't done his entire career this offseason? Even if he does get into the best shape of his life, his fitness level will degrade during the regular season.

 

[TDX27]

Are you expecting him to do something he really hasn't done his entire career this offseason? Even if he does get into the best shape of his life, his fitness level will degrade during the regular season.

You do know he has had a trainer and dietician for several years now and was in the best shape he had been in for years both last year and the year before. And, for a good half of this past season, before he obviously got hurt, he was actually moving out of the pocket and even ran the ball some. Or, did you not know or see any of that? The bad thing here is if the issue is with arthritis in his knees. Other things can be dealt with easier. Arthritis isn't one of them but he can do some things to strengthen the muscles around the knee and take medications. But, even late in the season, he was still able to throw the ball around. The play calling sucked. We had no run game. And until the last couple games of the year, our WR's were dropping multiple key balls per game so the O couldn't get into any rhythm.

 

[steelhurt]

This offensive scheme and coaching staff showed very little in being able to help BEN or other players out. A couple examples.......

1) Why did it take until late in the season for Deonte Johnson (most drops) to actively and dedicativly engage with the JUGGs machine. His problem wasn't solved in one session but greatly improved as time went along. WHY wasn't this addressed earlier or most importantly, the ENTIRE season ?

2) Play call telegraphing, make no mistake that opposing defenses had every bit of knowledge of run or pass and more likely than not, where the run / pass was headed field location-wise. I would venture to say over 68% of the time the defense guessed (if you can call it that) the exact play or near play called based on Personel / formation / QB placement.

3) NO ADJUSTMENTs or even the appearance of adjustments enabling Personel (on field) to get a better position to succeed. This was evident many times with one of them being the PO game against Cleveland. Offense Run away from TJ with continual defensive line slant attacks in the wrong direction. Obviously there were many many other examples in this game but also season long as well.


We made several coaching changes which in themselves will help BEN & Co., I hope the head coach can adjust and step up as well in identifying some of the weaknesses and in doing so so make adjustments along the way.......in a sooner manor than a later one.





Salute the nation

That’s the million dollar question I have. When will the head coach finally if ever be held accountable. This is his **** show and he should be held accountable for all of its shortcomings.
Earlier in the season when asked about click management his response was “They didn’t hire me to manage the clock”. Wtf kind of answer is that from your head coach? Your job is to manage everything Steelers as it relates to the team you put on the field. We can all try to analyze this team but until he is removed nothing gets better.

 

[SteelerFan448]

Ben isn't one to focus an entire offseason to focus on his mechanics. He's had a trainer and nutritionist for probably 6-7 years now, but the other offseason work hasn't been a focus. The physical demand of the season will wear and tear on him regardless of what he does during the offseason and as bad as the play calling was, his accuracy on long passes and even short passes late in the season was terrible. He doesn't have the same abilities that he had 5 years ago and he's going to need a lot of help on this team to even make the playoffs this year let alone win a playoff game.