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A little help with tonight's game

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Fiji Mariner

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Let me preface this by saying I love to play overs, with the brilliant insight of the posters here I'm sure some of you could shed some light into the matchups tonight and help me find the hot ones in here...
I narrowed it down to my best 10 over plays, if you have some better ones love to here them...I need some Vegas money tonight haha

Total Points over 51.5 (I'm feeling offense tonight and not sure how well we will contain McCaffrey/Olsen/Moore)
Longest TD over 48.5 yards (AB, JuJu, McCaffrey/Moore someone has to break a big one right?)
Longest FG over 45.5 yards (They have a good kicker, we have a kicker...why not)
McCaffrey over 54.5 yards rushing (think that is a no brainer barring injury or incredible success catching out of the backfield)
DJ Moore over 3.5 catches (this seems like one of the best ones if he's up against Sensabaugh or Burns. will Haden be on Funchess?)
DJ Moore over 42.5 yards (same as above)
Olsen over 4.5 catches (one of Cam's favorite targets vs our LBs...yes please)
Ben over 1.5 TDs (HERE WE GO STEELERS, feeling 2-4 by Ben tonight)
JuJu over 77.5 yards (not sure who will be primary coverage for him)
Vance over 3.5 catches
 
For trends, I'd bet on total points, Longest FG (Gano and Boz were pro bowlers together last year), Olson and Vance on overs for catches.

Ben seems safe since he's averaging 2 a game.

Don't touch the rest of them.
 
Any idea who you think covers Moore primarily Cope?
 
Fiji Mariner said:
Let me preface this by saying I love to play overs, with the brilliant insight of the posters here I'm sure some of you could shed some light into the matchups tonight and help me find the hot ones in here...
I narrowed it down to my best 10 over plays, if you have some better ones love to here them...I need some Vegas money tonight haha

Total Points over 51.5 (I'm feeling offense tonight and not sure how well we will contain McCaffrey/Olsen/Moore)
Longest TD over 48.5 yards (AB, JuJu, McCaffrey/Moore someone has to break a big one right?)
Longest FG over 45.5 yards (They have a good kicker, we have a kicker...why not)
McCaffrey over 54.5 yards rushing (think that is a no brainer barring injury or incredible success catching out of the backfield)
DJ Moore over 3.5 catches (this seems like one of the best ones if he's up against Sensabaugh or Burns. will Haden be on Funchess?)
DJ Moore over 42.5 yards (same as above)
Olsen over 4.5 catches (one of Cam's favorite targets vs our LBs...yes please)
Ben over 1.5 TDs (HERE WE GO STEELERS, feeling 2-4 by Ben tonight)
JuJu over 77.5 yards (not sure who will be primary coverage for him)
Vance over 3.5 catches
Click to expand...

If forced to choose I'd go under 48.5 yards for the longest touchdown.

These .5's can screw with you on the lower numbered bets.
 
Thanks B&G Bleeder.

I've been picking 8 props a week and the previous 2 weeks I went 7 out of 8 (I'm heating up), my worst weeks thus far have been 4 out of 8 (happened twice). 50 of 72 for a 69.4% win ratio is equating to best year at this in a while. I changed my betting strategy to never picking game outcomes and only picking over bets on player props in games which the Steelers are involved in. Playing only matchups and on games I know a lot about the players seems to be helping, or alas it could just be a hot streak...

Should've never played during the bye week, broke my own rule and went 4-8 that week
 
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Guess I should drop longest TD on Cope/Coach's advice and JuJu since it is the other high number and roll with the other 8.
 
Captain Cool Shades is ******* awesome. Never bet against Cool Shades, especially at home.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
Captain Cool Shades is ******* awesome. Never bet against Cool Shades, especially at home.
Click to expand...

The funny thing about Cool Shades is (I think) his team's best performances come at night, when he doesn't need the shades.
 
Maybe Cpt Cool Shades learned a lesson from Riverboat Ron on how to successfully challenge a spot last night...seen Cool Shades do it over and over without winning one.

if not for an icy cold Jordan Berry coming in an uncorking a 27 yarder and the very late first penalty of the game vs the Steelers it was almost perfect in how efficiently they played, amazing what they can do when not fighting against themselves too
 
If you took my advice, you went 4 for 5. Really thought Olsen would have had 5 catches though...
 
went 6 of 8 Cope...dropped the play over 48.5 and JuJu over yardage 77.5 rolled with the other 8


Funny thing is I had 13 potential plays on my card and went 11 winners and 2 losers with those
I only play 8 a week and found a way to put both losers on my final bets (Olsen over 4.5 and Moore over on yardage-effin Panthers)

I was screaming after our first offensive play which would've cashed the 2 I dropped just minutes into the game


Alas the system still seems to be working and I'm up to 58 of 80 winners on the year finally getting my win ratio to a healthy 72.5%
 
Over 50% is winning!!

My prop bet for yesterday would have been:

What number will be higher:

AB's receiving yardage
AB's MPH on his speeding ticket.
 
Steelworth said:
The funny thing about Cool Shades is (I think) his team's best performances come at night, when he doesn't need the shades.
Click to expand...

Yeah, he can see what's going on for a change.

"You can see a lot by looking." -- Yogi Berra

 
I would have bet my car that AB would not have negative yardage in the second half.

And lost my car.
 
AB negative yards for a half I've never seen as a prop but it would have to be -600 maybe up to -1000
 
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