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Last but not least here are my notes on film analysis of the quarterback prospect in the 2015 draft.
Please note, I think there are only SIX draftable QB prospect in this year's draft class. All are decent and have some potential but after those six it just drops off into a cavern of nothing. I wouldn't draft anyone else and don't even see worthwhile developmental prospects. Just too many negative attributes or things I use to just cross them off the list.
Quarterbacks
1. Jameis Winston, Florida State (6036, 231#)
Polarizing prospect. Film indicates very solid prospect ready for the NFL game. Shows understanding of the nuances of the position. Often goes 2-3 deep in to reads and makes very quick decisions. Trusts arm, not afraid of tight windows, and NFL-level coverage will not intimidate him. Ideal size for the position and possesses thick core and looks durable. Very good over-the-top motion and fundamentals leads to powerful arm and decent accuracy. Intense questions and scrutiny of off-field character. Looks soft and pudgy and lacks weight room work ethic. Knowledge and brain for game is very good but is he willing to work? Some trouble with the law and might feel entitled. Top 10 pick.
2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon (6036, 222#)
High quality character and athleticism for position (similar to Russell Wilson in this regard). Adequate but not elite arm strength and might struggle on deep outs and deep accuracy. Most of his college work was using spread concepts from shotgun with neither difficult reads nor decision making. Would argue 75% of his completions were to wide open targets. Very, very athletic and quick and can punish undisciplined pass rush techniques. Could easily rush for 500-800 yards a season early in career even without run options. The struggles of some recent option/athletic quarterbacks (RGIII, Kapernick, Wilson, Newton) has cast some doubt on players like Mariota.
3. Brett Hundley, UCLA (6032, 226#)
Superior athlete. Played under fire a lot on film with poor O-line work in front of him and bad drops from his receivers (see VA game). Good, strong arm motion. Not overly accurate but good enough (again, protection issues might have causes some footwork breakdowns). Reminds me a bit of Aaron Brooks. I would worry if he comes into the NFL behind a bad offensive line or experiences a lot of pressure early in career (eye level could start to drop). Not as much of an option runner as I was expecting on film. Is a shotgun, pocket quarterback that likes to spread the ball out when given time in the pocket. Film was better than I was expecting. Round 2.
4. Bryce Petty, Baylor (6027, 230#)
Throws a bit low off shoulder with a quick release and plenty of zip. Good deep ball. Can lose some accuracy when his footwork fails and seemed to have plenty of time with clean pockets at Baylor. When forced to move off spot, his game breaks down a lot. Not very accurate on the move. I would worry about his ability to adjust to what defenses do to him at the next level (which will be a lot of pressure and tight man-under coverage to take away 1st read). But he has NFL size and arm. Reminds me a bit of Ryan Nassib a couple seasons ago. Round 3-4
5. Garrett Grayson, Colorado State (6024, 213#)
Reminds me a bit of Nick Foles. A shotgun, pocket quarterback with some good athleticism. Decent arm that can wow you on one throw and look shaky the next. Will struggle a while to adjust to NFL level defensive speed and could put ball in very bad spots early and without enough zip. A team/QB coach will fall for him a bit and see a lot of upside as a developmental project but not sure he’s ever going to be top-15 good in the NFL. Round 4
6. Sean Mannion, Oregon State (6055, 229#)
Big, tall pocket player that was a 4-year starter in a pro-type offense. Saw under-center snaps, roll outs and play action on tape (which is very rare now days for prospects). Athletic in pocket, slides around a lot and not afraid to throw off balance (for good or bad). Reminds me a lot of Tony Romo and his throwing motion and has similar small hand size (9”). Like Romo will probably try to do too much and untimely turnovers could plague career (both fumbles and interceptions). Intriguing prospect and could go anywhere from round 2-3 to round 5 (like Petty and Grayson).
7. Brandon Bridge, South Alabama (6043, 229#)
Very raw prospect with only plus attribute a very live and strong arm. Defines long term project and isn’t close to being NFL ready. Shoddy footwork and accuracy and not sure it’s correctable. Good size and strength for position but not sure I think it’s worth investing a lot of time into him or drafting him. Round 7-FA
8. Cody Fajardo, Nevada (6014, 223#)
Looks shorter on film. Another prospect I really don’t think is draftable with too many negative attributes to really invest much time/resources/effort into development. Try-hard kid and shows some toughness and a decent athlete. Not a great throwing motion or arm. Round 7-FA
9. Conner Halliday, Washington State (6030, 204#)
His 8 3/8” hand probably makes him undraftable to me. Was injured all of 2014.
Please note, I think there are only SIX draftable QB prospect in this year's draft class. All are decent and have some potential but after those six it just drops off into a cavern of nothing. I wouldn't draft anyone else and don't even see worthwhile developmental prospects. Just too many negative attributes or things I use to just cross them off the list.
Quarterbacks
1. Jameis Winston, Florida State (6036, 231#)
Polarizing prospect. Film indicates very solid prospect ready for the NFL game. Shows understanding of the nuances of the position. Often goes 2-3 deep in to reads and makes very quick decisions. Trusts arm, not afraid of tight windows, and NFL-level coverage will not intimidate him. Ideal size for the position and possesses thick core and looks durable. Very good over-the-top motion and fundamentals leads to powerful arm and decent accuracy. Intense questions and scrutiny of off-field character. Looks soft and pudgy and lacks weight room work ethic. Knowledge and brain for game is very good but is he willing to work? Some trouble with the law and might feel entitled. Top 10 pick.
2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon (6036, 222#)
High quality character and athleticism for position (similar to Russell Wilson in this regard). Adequate but not elite arm strength and might struggle on deep outs and deep accuracy. Most of his college work was using spread concepts from shotgun with neither difficult reads nor decision making. Would argue 75% of his completions were to wide open targets. Very, very athletic and quick and can punish undisciplined pass rush techniques. Could easily rush for 500-800 yards a season early in career even without run options. The struggles of some recent option/athletic quarterbacks (RGIII, Kapernick, Wilson, Newton) has cast some doubt on players like Mariota.
3. Brett Hundley, UCLA (6032, 226#)
Superior athlete. Played under fire a lot on film with poor O-line work in front of him and bad drops from his receivers (see VA game). Good, strong arm motion. Not overly accurate but good enough (again, protection issues might have causes some footwork breakdowns). Reminds me a bit of Aaron Brooks. I would worry if he comes into the NFL behind a bad offensive line or experiences a lot of pressure early in career (eye level could start to drop). Not as much of an option runner as I was expecting on film. Is a shotgun, pocket quarterback that likes to spread the ball out when given time in the pocket. Film was better than I was expecting. Round 2.
4. Bryce Petty, Baylor (6027, 230#)
Throws a bit low off shoulder with a quick release and plenty of zip. Good deep ball. Can lose some accuracy when his footwork fails and seemed to have plenty of time with clean pockets at Baylor. When forced to move off spot, his game breaks down a lot. Not very accurate on the move. I would worry about his ability to adjust to what defenses do to him at the next level (which will be a lot of pressure and tight man-under coverage to take away 1st read). But he has NFL size and arm. Reminds me a bit of Ryan Nassib a couple seasons ago. Round 3-4
5. Garrett Grayson, Colorado State (6024, 213#)
Reminds me a bit of Nick Foles. A shotgun, pocket quarterback with some good athleticism. Decent arm that can wow you on one throw and look shaky the next. Will struggle a while to adjust to NFL level defensive speed and could put ball in very bad spots early and without enough zip. A team/QB coach will fall for him a bit and see a lot of upside as a developmental project but not sure he’s ever going to be top-15 good in the NFL. Round 4
6. Sean Mannion, Oregon State (6055, 229#)
Big, tall pocket player that was a 4-year starter in a pro-type offense. Saw under-center snaps, roll outs and play action on tape (which is very rare now days for prospects). Athletic in pocket, slides around a lot and not afraid to throw off balance (for good or bad). Reminds me a lot of Tony Romo and his throwing motion and has similar small hand size (9”). Like Romo will probably try to do too much and untimely turnovers could plague career (both fumbles and interceptions). Intriguing prospect and could go anywhere from round 2-3 to round 5 (like Petty and Grayson).
7. Brandon Bridge, South Alabama (6043, 229#)
Very raw prospect with only plus attribute a very live and strong arm. Defines long term project and isn’t close to being NFL ready. Shoddy footwork and accuracy and not sure it’s correctable. Good size and strength for position but not sure I think it’s worth investing a lot of time into him or drafting him. Round 7-FA
8. Cody Fajardo, Nevada (6014, 223#)
Looks shorter on film. Another prospect I really don’t think is draftable with too many negative attributes to really invest much time/resources/effort into development. Try-hard kid and shows some toughness and a decent athlete. Not a great throwing motion or arm. Round 7-FA
9. Conner Halliday, Washington State (6030, 204#)
His 8 3/8” hand probably makes him undraftable to me. Was injured all of 2014.